The Coverage Properties of Confidence Regions After Model Selection

It is very common in applied frequentist ("classical") statistics to carry out a preliminary statistical (i.e. data-based) model selection by, for example, using preliminary hypothesis tests or minimizing AIC. This is usually followed by the inference of interest, using the same data, based on the assumption that the selected model had been given to us  a priori . This assumption is false and it can lead to an inaccurate and misleading inference. We consider the important case that the inference of interest is a confidence region. We review the literature that shows that the resulting confidence regions typically have very poor coverage properties. We also briefly review the closely related literature that describes the coverage properties of prediction intervals after preliminary statistical model selection. A possible motivation for preliminary statistical model selection is a wish to utilize uncertain prior information in the inference of interest. We review the literature in which the aim is to utilize uncertain prior information directly in the construction of confidence regions, without requiring the intermediate step of a preliminary statistical model selection. We also point out this aim as a future direction for research.     

“十一五”我国建筑业发展预测模型建立和应用

基于灰色理论建立建筑业的GM(1,1)发展预测模型,对我国建筑业的发展进行预测,并运用多元回归预测模型进行验证比较,两种不同的预测方法得出的结论是一致的,“十一五”期间我国建筑业将继续保持较快增长。     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

Unusual operating cash flows and stock returns

The current financial reporting of cash flows from operations does not present individual sources of these cash flows, making it difficult for investors to assess a firm’s future performance. I hand-collect individual cash flows from unusual operations and examine their characteristics for predicting future cash flows. The results show that the unusual individual cash flow items contain a significant incremental predictive ability for future cash flows. Additional return tests show that stock prices fail to fully reflect their predictive value, suggesting that the current reporting practice may mislead investor perceptions of a firm’s cash generating ability and investors could benefit from a more explicit presentation of cash flows from operations.     

浅议地勘单位实施企业化改革过程中的职工队伍建设

地勘单位实施企业化改革，必须加强职工队伍建设，要针对存在的问题，深化三项制度改革；加强人才培养和引进，提高职工综合素质；加强市场观念意识的培育；实施企业文化建设工程。     

Predicting European Takeover Targets

This article extends the Palepu (1986) acquisition likelihood model by incorporating measures of a technical nature, e.g. momentum, trading volume as well as a measure of market sentiment. We use the proposed model to predict takeover targets in a large sample of European and cross‐border merger and acquisition deals and validate its performance on an in‐ and out‐of‐sample basis. The robustness of the proposed model is investigated across several dimensions. In addition we explore the ability of the model to form the basis of successful takeover timing investment strategies. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that the proposed model predicts European takeover targets with relatively high accuracy and is able to determine portfolios that earn significant returns which are not explained by conventional risk factors.     

对地勘单位转企改制有关问题的再认识

本文以中国冶勘总局一局为例 ,结合当前转企、改制过程中地勘单位关注的热点问题 ,从新的视角论证了“企”、“制”、“干部标准”的含义及转企与改制的关系、改革发展与稳定的关系、减负与加压的关系、核心竞争力与企业发展的关系等。     

浅析会计信息失真的危害和对策

在现实生活中,会计信息失真已成为较普遍的社会现象。低劣的会计信息不仅会使微观经济陷入混乱,同时也会造成宏观经济的失调,在相当程度上影响了国家经济的健康发展。因此,提高会计信息质量,确保会计数据的真实、完整,已成为加强经济管理和财务管理不可缺少的重要环节。文章从会计信息真实性的内涵、会计信息失真的原因、会计信息失真的源头治理三方面探究会计信息失真的根源,提出遏制会计信息失真的几点对策。     

坚持与时俱进 实现地勘体制创新－中国冶勘建设“一统式”地勘院的实践与思考

“一统式”地勘院指组建以局、院为单元 ,集中统一的 ,具有法人资格的地勘院 ,按“三个一体化” ,即勘查开发一体化 ,计划内外一体化 ,经济与技术一体化原则运作。组建“一统式”地勘院为中国冶勘系统所首创 ,文章全面介绍了组建“一统式”地勘院的具体作法 ,“一统式”地勘院的优越性和生命力所在 ,在此基础上进行了深刻的理论思考 ,得出了六点结论性的认识。     

地勘单位效益承包的问题与对策

地勘单位事转企的步伐逐步加快,其外部环境已发生根本变化,并随着经济体制改革的不断深化,地勘单位的经济结构、组织形式和管理模式将发生重大改变。文章对地勘单位效益承包中存在的问题进行了分析,并针对承包思路、办法、形式和承包环节等方面提出了整改意见。